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The most severe projected effects of the climate emergency for the UK have been mapped by experts, including a scorching 4C increase in mean temperatures to a 6.5-foot rise in ocean levels. A separate possibility envisions a decline of 6C in temperature following the failure of key Atlantic Ocean currents, which would profoundly upset agriculture and energy needs.

Plausible Extremes, Not Forecasts

These effects, certain ones are associated with climate tipping points, are seen as improbable but plausible. The scientists explained that these scenarios filled a gap in planning that had rendered the UK ill-prepared for worst-case results.

"The climate extremes we have outlined are not forecasts, but they are possible," commented the lead researcher who oversaw the analysis. "The UK has been formulating policy lacking the methods to test against catastrophic outcomes. We've now provided policymakers what they need to plan for climate outcomes they pray never occur, but dare not dismiss."

A Suite of Extreme Weather Projections

A further series of dire projections details the projected severity of extreme weather between now and the end of the century. These suggest that temperatures could rocket in particular seasons by up to 6C above the norm, while precipitation could be three times standard measurements.

The probability of the worst-case outcomes coming to pass could not be calculated due to a lack of certainty about what measures will be enacted to combat global heating and how the Earth's systems will react. This research was likened to security threat evaluations or scenario planning for the banking sector.

Major Possibility Details

• Severe Heating: Worldwide averages exceeding 4C by 2100 could happen if climate action breaks down or if strong feedback loops such as the Amazon rainforest perishing emit its vast reserves of carbon. This would cause severe and lengthy heat domes and water shortages affecting the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A key circulation system, the North Atlantic current, is weakening and showing signs of collapse due to climate change. A full shutdown beginning in 2030 would lead to a six-degree temperature drop in the UK. "Agriculture would struggle enormously and water supplies would be drastically changed," noted the lead researcher.
• Rapid Sea Level Rise: A increase of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could take place if polar ice in Greenland and Antarctica disintegrate quickly, submerging coastal cities and towns. Differing from the other scenarios, this risk is already understood by planners.
• Aerosol Effect: Global averages could also be driven up by about 0.75C if pollution from industry is sharply cut. This paradoxical outcome occurs because pollution particles from fossil fuel combustion block solar radiation from reaching the ground.

Planning for the Unthinkable

The worst-case scenarios could be used to inform the development of long-term infrastructure, such as new towns, power generation facilities and water management networks. Awareness of these future hazards could also hasten the push to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

The research formulated the worst-case scenarios using a mix of past data and records, computer simulations and climate physics. The possibilities exclude broader worldwide issues like the agricultural collapse and increased conflict.

This work was requested as part of a official risk assessment framework. Previous assessments have stated that too little consideration was being paid to high-consequence, low-probability risks.

An independent advisory body has said that the UK needs to "prepare for two degrees of warming" and examine the risks for severe warming. Earlier government strategies have been described as being "insufficient" by environmental groups.

An official statement noted: "Global warming is at the heart of the country's focus, both preparing for impacts and establishing itself as a renewable energy leader. It is essential that the UK is ready for the effects."