NFL Postseason Scenarios: Key Deciders & Scenarios for the Season Finale.
As we head into the final week of the regular NFL campaign, only a pair of postseason berths remain open. However, a great deal more is at stake, including the highly desired #1 rankings in each conference and four divisional crowns.
NFL schedulers have produced a perfect finale, with the final two play-off positions to be decided in a pair of head-to-head matchups.
Current NFL Play-Off Standings
AFC Standings
- Denver Broncos (13-3)
- New England Patriots (13-3)
- Jacksonville (12-4)
- Pittsburgh (9-7) / Baltimore (8-8)
- Houston Texans (11-5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo Bills (11-5)
The winner of the Pittsburgh-Baltimore contest will claim the #4 spot and a home game in the first playoff round. At the same time, the Bills and the Chargers are set as wildcard entrants.
Houston require a win coupled with a Jacksonville loss to climb from fifth to third. The Broncos will secure the #1 ranking with a triumph, but a loss could pave the way for New England or Jacksonville to snatch it.
National Football Conference Rankings
- Seattle (13-3)
- Chicago (11-5)
- Philadelphia (11-5)
- Carolina Panthers (8-8) / Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
- San Francisco (12-4)
- L.A. Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay Packers (9-6)
The NFC South will be claimed by the victor of the Panthers-Buccaneers matchup, earning them the #4 position. Notably, Carolina could still claim the division even with a defeat, depending on other outcomes.
Green Bay are locked into the seventh seed. The marquee matchup, however, is the clash for the NFC's top seed between the Seahawks and the 49ers, with a week off and home-field advantage on the line.
How the NFL Postseason Works
The #1 team in each conference receives a crucial bye week and home games for the duration of the postseason.
On Wildcard Weekend, the remaining six playoff teams face off: the #2 team plays the seventh, third hosts sixth, and fourth hosts fifth.
For the Divisional Round, the top seeds join the fray, facing the lowest surviving team. The AFC and NFC championship games are then played at the best remaining team, underscoring the critical value of securing that top spot.
AFC North Decider: A Brutal Finale
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
This fierce grudge match reaches its climax in the final game of the regular season. The divisional title and a play-off berth on the line, this is a genuine elimination situation.
The Steelers have been up and down this season, while the Ravens started poorly but are still in the hunt. Key injuries could be decisive: Pittsburgh may be without star receiver DK Metcalf, while the Ravens' signal-caller Lamar Jackson is questionable with a health issue.
Running back Derrick Henry might emerge as the difference-maker for the Ravens in what is set up as a physical, defensive battle.
NFC West Showdown for the Top Seed
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (01:00, Sunday)
Not only the NFC West is at stake when Seattle visits San Francisco. The winner claims the conference's #1 spot and the path to the Super Bowl that it provides.
This game features an explosive San Francisco attack against a dominant Seahawks defense. With QB Brock Purdy came back, the 49ers have been the NFL's top offense. On the other hand, the Seahawks' defense is rated among the best in the NFL.
The Seahawks' QB Sam Darnold needs to cut down on mistakes that have plagued him this season. Whoever comes out on top gains a huge advantage for the postseason journey.
The NFC South's Uncertain Finish
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers (21:30 Saturday)
Neither team enters this game with much momentum. Tampa Bay have lost seven of eight, while Carolina have missed chances to secure the division.
For Carolina it's straightforward: win and they're in. The Buccaneers, the situation is more complex. Even with a win, they require another result from the Falcons-Saints matchup to steal the divisional championship.
Three-Way Fight for AFC Supremacy
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00, Sunday)
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins (21:25, Sunday)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25, Sunday)
The Denver Broncos hold the cards for the #1 AFC spot. A win over a L.A. Chargers team likely to rest starters gets it done.
If the Broncos lose, the door opens for the Patriots. A Patriots win combined with a Broncos loss would give the #1 ranking to New England.
Jacksonville are the long shot. They need a triumph and defeats for both Denver and New England to achieve an unlikely ascent to #1. More importantly, a Jaguars loss could see them passed by the Texans in the division standings.
Full Slate of Final Week Games
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
