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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|