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This surely should not continue. It makes no sense that it persists. Yet, persist it does.

A Historic Triumph Defying Expectations

Aston Villa entered Saturday's top-flight clash at Chelsea aiming for a historic record of eleven consecutive wins, a feat last achieved in the distant past. For much of the match, this feat seemed highly unlikely, as the hosts dominated proceedings, secured the lead, and could have added to their advantage. However, Chelsea are vulnerability with a lead, especially at home, while Villa have cultivated a baffling habit of snatching away victories from losing positions.

First, Ollie Watkins equalised, the ball ricocheting in off his shin and the post following his initial shot was blocked by Robert Sánchez. Subsequently, he nodded in the winner with a precise header. These were just his fourth and fifth league goals of the campaign. Watkins might believe some fortune was overdue, and there's no question the equalizing goal involved a significant element of luck. Currently, however, fortune is favoring Villa.

The Numbers Behind an Implausible Run

Nine of these 11 straight wins have been by a solitary goal. They have kept a shutout in just one of those games. Their expected goals (xG) have been better in just six of those fixtures, and in a couple of those, the margin was minimal. Their last five away Premier League victories have all come after conceding first. This pattern should not, but observers have been claiming that for some time, and Villa continue winning. The central question is whether their outcomes will finally align with their performances or if their level of play can improve to justify the results.

This seems unsustainable be sustainable, but everyone has been stating that for weeks and Villa keep on winning.

A Core Characteristic: Belief

Fighting back is not merely a feature of this season. Over the past three seasons, no team has won more points from losing positions than Villa's fifty-four; 18 of those were secured this season, fifty percent more than the next best team, Sunderland. This season, Villa substitutes have scored 9 goals. Two key points can be made about Villa under their manager.

• First, they possess a deep-rooted confidence that means no deficit ever feels beyond them. This is, in part, self-perpetuating: the more they come from behind, the more they are convinced they can do it once more.
• Second, Emery has proven very adept at changing games through his substitutions.

The Emery Effect

While Chelsea won the expected goals 2.1-1.4, Villa became dominant from the moment, around the hour mark, when Emery made a triple change. Ollie Watkins came on for Malen, who had found it difficult with limited service. Suddenly, the ball was held up better, and Watkins's runs behind the defensive line caused problems. Amadou Onana and Sancho also entered, bolstering the midfield and adding the width they had eschewed earlier.

Chelsea had ten attempts to Villa's none before the substitutions; following them, Villa created eleven opportunities to Chelsea's four. By the end, Villa were commanding and could have won more comfortably. Not for the first time, Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca seemed unable to react as the game slipped away; the impression remains that he is more proficient at devising a game plan with time to prepare than adapting on the fly.

Individual Brilliance

Villa have also developed a happy habit of individuals producing pieces of sensational quality to alter games. Morgan Rogers has been decisive at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The image of him shifting the ball onto his right foot and curling a finish into the top corner has become a recurring theme. It was the winger who transformed the game from the bench at Leeds. The striker changed the game at Stamford Bridge. The performances of players such as Ezri Konsa and Lindelof on Saturday were also vital. At present, it's not always the whole side playing flawlessly, but enough players within it stepping up to secure the victories.

What Comes Next?

Can they keep going? They now sit three points behind the league leaders, and as the season approaches its halfway stage, they have to be viewed as in the championship conversation, certainly more so than teams like Chelsea or reigning title holders Liverpool. Tuesday's away game at Arsenal will be a major test of that claim. Villa defeated Arsenal on the first weekend of December, a match in which they not only had better the xG but posted an xG 40% higher than any other side has managed against Arsenal in the league this term.

Arsenal have assembled their own sequence of narrow victories, winning three in a row without ever being entirely convincing. Tuesday will be a test for both sides – and if Villa win a 12th game in a row, it would become increasingly difficult to dismiss their championship pedigree.